Polls head for photo-finish as BJP plays catch-up

The race for emerging as the single largest party and the largest pre-poll alliance in the Lok Sabha election has become really tight. Polling is
yet to be held in 171 seats, although campaigning is over in all but 86 seats. And as parties go into the final stretch of the race, it looks like it will be a photo-finish.

It also seems quite clear now that whichever party or formation emerges as the biggest bloc, it will still have to rope in many more partners after the election in order to form a stable government. By themselves, the two top groups - UPA and NDA - are certain to fall well short of the majority mark of 272.

TOI's political bureaus in 14 different cities and its network of correspondents have been tracking the poll's progress to bring you their best estimates of the likely results. We have done two rounds and here's the third. When we began, it looked like Congress
was well ahead of BJP and the UPA was more than 20 seats ahead of the NDA. No longer.

The Congress, according to our estimate, now looks like ending up with 152 seats and the UPA with 195. The BJP, we feel, is likely to get 145 seats and its allies another 42, taking the NDA's tally to 187. In other words, the gap between the two pre-poll alliances seems no more than 8 seats, and as these are nothing more than estimates, it's really tough to say which way the electoral see-saw will eventually tilt.

The bigger message that's emerging from this scenario is that the leading parties as well as alliances could be separated by less than 10 seats. This would obviously mean that the Left and "Others" could end up deciding who forms the next government.

The current estimates differ from the earlier one in several states. Among the most significant differences is that in Uttar Pradesh - we now feel both the Congress and the BJP might do better than earlier anticipated. Between them and the BJP's ally, Ajit Singh's RLD, they could win 30 of the state's 80 seats. The rest, we believe, will be split 28-22 between the BSP and the SP.

Source : Times Of India

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Taliban completely withdraw from Buner: Pakistan

PESHAWAR: Taliban militants have completed their pullback from a district just 60 miles (100 kilometers) from the Pakistani capital and troops have fanned out in their wake, a senior official said on Saturday.

The Taliban's retreat to their stronghold in the Swat Valley brings some relief for Pakistani officials trying to salvage a controversial peace deal that halted nearly two years of bloody fighting in the northwestern region.

But US officials kept up their pressure for more forceful action against Islamist groups they argue present a growing threat to Pakistan's stability as well as to American troops battling in neighboring Afghanistan
.

Militants from Swat seized Buner, a jumble of mountains and farmsteads on the west bank of the Indus River, after President Asif Ali Zardari earlier this month signed the peace pact, which provides for the introduction of Islamic law in the region.

They began pulling out on Friday as officials issued increasingly loud threats of military action and a hardline cleric who mediated the peace deal intervened to defuse the tension.

Syed Mohammad Javed, the top government official in Malakand division, which includes Swat and Buner, said on Saturday that all the militants had crossed the mountains passes into Swat.

"They all have gone back," Javed said. "No one is left in Buner."

He also said that six platoons of paramilitary troops had deployed to police stations across Buner.

"If police need their help, they will assistant them in maintaining law and order," Javed said.

Javed said the cleric, Sufi Muhammad, had also given his assurance that militants would soon retreat to Swat from another neighboring area, Shangla.

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Arun Shourie touts Narendra Modi as Advani's successor

NEW DELHI: In what may be the first clear advocacy of Narendra Modi for PM by a senior BJP leader, former minister Arun Shourie said the Gujarat chief minister's leadership of his state was exemplary as he had already implemented programmes being promised by political parties in their manifestos.

Speaking in Ahmedabad, Shourie suggested that it could be Modi's turn to be projected as BJP's prime ministerial nominee after L K Advani as he said, "You have an opportunity to elect the PM not only this time but in the next polls also." He said Gujarat was a model state for governance and development in the country.

Though Shourie was quick to clarify that he had voiced his personal opinion, his remarks are bound to create a stir in the party not only because they have come in the midst of the poll campaign but also as he has touched the faultlines between "gen-next" saffron leaders. Equations amongst the next rung of BJP leaders are far from easy.

Shourie's remarks are sure to go down well with Modi who has emerged as the party's top campaigner, ahead of Advani in the current LS polls, though allies like JD(U), who are eyeing Muslim support, are sure to get jitters.

Modi has been a first-among-equals as far as his peer group within BJP is concerned, a status reinforced by his re-election in December 2007 by a convincing margin, contrary to the expectations of the official faction in the party which had anticipated a modest win. Given the sharp rivalries, while Modi's position has been unstated, it is clear at party meets that he has the cadres rooting for him.

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Sri Lankans in 'catastrophic' situation: Red Cross

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka: Tens of thousands of civilians trapped in Sri Lanka's northern war zone face a "catastrophic" situation, the Red Cross said, amid fears a final assault against the Tamil Tiger rebels would lead to a dramatic rise in casualties.

The United Nations and others have called for a negotiated truce to allow civilians to leave the rebel-held coastal strip and the government says more than 52,000 had escaped since Monday.

But it has refused to heed the international pleas to halt the fighting, saying Tuesday that it is on the verge of crushing the separatists and putting an end to the 25-year-old war.

The UN estimated more than 4,500 civilians have been killed in the past three months.

The rebels said more than 1,000 civilians died Monday in a government raid, while the government said it rescued thousands after they broke through a barrier built by the insurgents that protects their last stronghold.

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EC biased towards Congress, alleges Mayawati

NEW DELHI: Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati on Tuesday launched a scathing attack against the Election Commission during a press briefing. Mayawati alleged that the Election Commission was biased in favour of Congress and working on its directions.

"I would like to say that the EC officials are acting on the directives of the Congress and its allies. The EC under political pressure is trying to stop BSP to gain power despite the party having peoples' support in its favour," Mayawati claimed.

Taking on CEC Navin Chawla and the Election Commissioner SY Quraishi, Mayawati said that no free and fair elections can take place in the state with Chawla heading the EC.

She told reporters, "Both members of EC (Navin Chawla and S Y Quraishi) are active members of the Congress coterie. Under such circumstances, free and fair elections are not possible in the country. I strongly condemn the EC tactics."

Mayawati also attacked Quraishi saying that he has vested interests in the state and is supporting the Congress as well as the Samajwadi Party.

"Election Commissioner S Y Quraishi has interest in Uttar Pradesh as he himself hails from the state and has relatives there. He has relations with a famous Samajwadi Party leader," the BSP supremo alleged.

According to PTI, Mayawati also said that transfer of police officers on Monday in Jaunpur where a candidate was found hanging had "proved apprehensions of former Chief Election Commissioner N Gopalaswami regarding integrity of his successor Navin Chawla".

"Gopalaswami had written a letter to the President doubting the integrity of Chawla and had alleged that his deputy was working as a Congress agent. The Jaunpur transfers had proved that former CEC's allegations were true," the BSP supremo said.

She said never in the past such serious allegations have been levelled against any CEC. "Under such circumstances, Chawla should have resigned on his own. Unfortunately that did not happen," she said.

Mayawati alleged that Quraishi was indulging in activities which had nothing to do with the poll process, PTI said.

"Due to his personal interest, Quraishi, instead of visiting states where violence took place in the first phase, is coming to UP again and again and indulging in activities which had nothing to do with the poll process," she alleged.

Mayawati termed as unfortunate the Election Commissioner's remarks warning UP officials of serious action.

She added that "Quraishi has personal animosity against some officials of the state.

"Without making any inquiry, Quraishi asked the officials to mend their ways immediately and threatened them to ruin their career. This is very unfortunate. Keeping in view the attitude of the EC, I am sure that the Lok Sabha elections are neither fair nor free," she said.

"The inquiry committee, which submitted its report yesterday, has said that prima facie it was a case of suicide and no political person was involved," she said.

She said: "the EC on the basis of a report submitted by two IAS officials, who do not have any experience of investigating crime, transferred three police officers including the additional SP. The action taken by the EC was unfortunate."

Such action will demoralize the government machinery which is committed to ensure free, fair and peaceful conduct of the Lok Sabha elections, the UP Chief Minister said.

"In the first phase, no untoward incident was reported from anywhere in the state. Under such circumstances instead of patting our back, the EC had removed three officers only on the basis of baseless complaints, which is not justified," she said.

Mayawati maintained the EC's action will create hurdles in the state government's effort to conduct peaceful and fair elections.

"This is a serious situation for democracy and Congress is solely responsible for this. But I would like to add that the EC's tactics will not help the Congress or any of the opposition parties in the ongoing polls," she said.

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Thousands flee Sri Lanka as deadline passes

COLOMBO, SRI LANKA: Tens of thousands of civilians fled Sri Lanka's northern war zone in a record exodus ahead of the government 's deadline on Tuesday for separatist Tamil rebels to surrender, officials said.

More than 39,000 civilians arrived at military checkpoints, within hours of a military operation that saw Sri Lankan soldiers break through a barrier that the Tamil Tiger rebels had erected to defend their ever-shrinking slice of territory along the northern coast.

The number of fleeing civilians on Monday was the largest in a single day, and that figure was expected to increase Tuesday as more people made their way out, said military spokesman Brig. Udaya Nanayakkara.

The government issued a 24-hour deadline on Monday for the cornered LTTE rebels to surrender or face a final assault- a signal that the insurgents may be on the verge of total defeat after 25 years of rebellion.

The noon Tuesday (0630 GMT) deadline passed with no response from the guerrillas. Rights groups reiterated their concern for civilians still stranded with the rebels.

Human Rights Watch, which said 50,000-100,000 remained stranded, warned that the government might launch a major attack following its warning to the rebels.

``Both sides need to show far greater concern for civilians, or many more civilians will die,'' said Brad Adams, the New York-based group's Asia director.

The International Crisis Group called the situation ``a humanitarian tragedy'' and urged the government to stop any fighting. The group also said the rebels need to allow civilians to leave, and that the government should establish ``a humanitarian corridor'' to let them out.

The number of fleeing civilians made it clear that the government had vastly underestimated how many people were caught in the fighting. While aid groups had estimated that about 100,000 civilians were trapped ahead of this week's exodus, the government had cited about 40,000, roughly the number that crossed over on Monday alone.

More than 4,500 civilians have been killed in the past three months, according to UN estimates. The UN Children's Fund said it fears for the safety of children still trapped in the war zone if fighting continues and the rebels refuse to allow people to leave.

The government and human rights groups have accused the rebels of forcing civilians to stay in their territory to use as human shields, while the rebels have said remaining citizens are there by choice.

``With this latest surge in fighting, our greatest fear is that the worst is yet to come,'' said Daniel Toole, the agency's South Asia director.

The UN and others have called for a negotiated truce to allow civilians to leave the dwindling, rebel-held enclave.

But the government has rejected such calls, saying it is on the verge of crushing the rebels and putting an end to the Asia's longest-running civil war.

The rebels have fought for an independent homeland for ethnic minority Tamils. More than 70,000 people have been killed in the violence.

Source : Times Of India

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Taliban want Sharia law enforced throughout Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: A resurgent Taliban in Pakistan's northwestern Swat valley on Monday vowed to enforce Islamic laws across the country while ruling out
the possibility of laying down arms following the implementation of Sharia in the region.

The Sharia or Islamic law regime approved recently by President Asif Ali Zardari will not be confined to Malakand division, which includes Swat, and the Taliban wants the system to be enforced in other parts of Pakistan, Taliban spokesman Muslim Khan said today.

"(Sharia) is not only for Malakand division, it is for all humanity, for all Muslims. So we will go more for implementation of Quran, Shariah-e-Muhammadi, not only in Malakand division (but) other parts of Pakistan also," Khan told Dawn News channel in an interview.

He was responding to a question on whether the Taliban believed they had achieved their goal following the federal government's approval for enforcing Sharia in Swat.

Islamic laws were enforced in Swat, located just 160 km from Islamabad, after religious hardliner Sufi Muhammad initiated peace talks with Taliban on behalf of government.

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NDA will cross magic figure of 272: Swaraj

BHOPAL: Senior BJP leader Sushma Swaraj today expressed confidence that the NDA would definitely cross the magic figure of 272 in the Lok Sabha elections.

Not only would the NDA get a majority on its own, the BJP would also emerge as the single largest party, Swaraj said while addressing a press conference at the Madhya Pradesh BJP office.

Asked to specify the number of seats that the BJP was likely to win, she said that the party would win anything between 180 to 200 seats on its own.

The senior BJP leader, who is the party in-charge for Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand said that her party can win all the 11 seats in Chhattisgarh, all the 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh and four out of six seats in Jharkhand for which polling was held in the first phase on April 16.

Sushma said that she was hurt at the type of language being used by leaders of some political parties during the campaign for the Lok Sabha elections.

She claimed that when BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate, L K Advani described Manmohan Singh as a weak Prime Minister, he did not attack him personally but only referred to his working style.

Similarly, Sushma said that when Narendra Modi called the Congress as old, he did not mean disrespect to any person but only spoke of the organization.

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Paswan defends Lalu on Babri statement against Congress

PATNA: Coming out in defence of his ally Lalu Prasad, locked in a bitter verbal duel with the Congress over Babri mosque demolition, LJP president Ramvilas Paswan today said that nobody can dispute what the RJD leader had said on the issue.

"Lalu ji has just said that there was a Congress government in Delhi led by P V Narasimha Rao when the Babri mosque was pulled down. Who can dispute this fact?," Paswan told reporters at the airport here before leaving for electioneering.

Paswan slammed the Congress for attacking him and Lalu ignoring the "sacrifices" they made for the party that heads the the UPA government at the Centre.

"It is only after Congress president attacked Lalu at an election rally in Jamui for misgovernance during the RJD rule that we retaliated," he said.

Paswan, also a union minister, said despite his party deciding against putting up a "winnable candidate" Shoaib Iqbal from Chandni Chowk constituency, "the Congress has not reciprocated the gesture and fielded a candidate against me who is not capable of fetching even 2000 votes."

"Babri masjid was razed to the ground and Congress cannot be absolved of responsibility," Lalu had said addressing an election meeting at Manigachi in Bihar's Darbhanga district on April 17, triggering a counter-attack by the Congress.

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I never said LTTE is not a terror group: Karunanidhi

NEW DELHI: A day after Tamil Nadu chief minister M Karunanidhi called LTTE chief V Prabhakaran “a good friend”, he sought to clarify his remarks
saying his earlier comments had been twisted and taken out of context.

“I never said LTTE is not a terror group,” Karunanidhi said on Monday. “I expressed concern for the Tamil cause in Sri Lanka,” he added. “But the LTTE did not start as a terrorist organization, it became a terror group later,” he said. ( Watch )

“We cannot forgive the LTTE for killing Rajiv Gandhi,” he said in attempt to backtrack from his earlier remarks. “Sriperumbudur cannot be forgotten”.

The DMK chief on Sunday inflicted a serious embarrassment on Congress by calling Prabhakaran a good friend. "Prabhakaran is my good friend. I am not a terrorist," said Karunanidhi with a laugh of the LTTE boss who is treated as a terrorist by almost the entire international community.

Karunanidhi, who was speaking to a TV channel, also refused to describe the LTTE chief as a terrorist, though he faulted him for using "wrong methods". "Their goals are right, but method is wrong," he said of the LTTE, declared a terrorist organisation in India.

Congress, which supports the DMK government in Tamil Nadu, swiftly contradicted the UPA partner's remarks but, significantly, refrained from attacking Karunanidhi.

Asked specifically by his daughter and DMK Rajya Sabha member Kanimozhi, who was present in the interview, whether he saw Prabhakaran as a terrorist, Karunanidhi said in Tamil, " Naan appadi paarkkalai (I don't see that way)."

He drew a distinction between Prabhakaran and his group which follows him reverentially. "May be, some people in his group are terrorists but that is not his fault." The chief minister also endorsed LTTE's objective to carve out a separate Tamil homeland from Sri Lanka. "The goals of the LTTE are great. They operate with the wonderful goal of establishing Tamil Eelam. However, somewhere along the line, terrorists entered the scene without their knowledge."

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