Musharraf's endgame: India set to benefit?

NEW DELHI: The endgame for Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad is clearly at touching distance now - whether by impeachment or resignation, Pakistan's most recent dictator is toast.

For every democratically minded person, the fact that this will increase the space for civilian government in military-ruled Pakistan would be welcome. Why then does that not seem to be true for fiercely democratic India next door?

National security adviser, MK Narayanan raised the unhappy prospect of Msuharraf's exit leaving a "vacuum" that would not be in India's interest. In a recent interview, he said, "Whether he is impeached or not is not important from the Indian point of view. It is for the people of Pakistan to decide. But it leaves a big vacuum and we are deeply concerned about this vacuum because it leaves the radical extremist outfits with freedom to do what they like, not merely on Pak-Afghan border but clearly our side of the border too. Like Nature abhors a vacuum, we abhor the political vacuum that exists in Pakistan. It greatly worries us."

The fact is, Musharraf has been emasculated for some time within Pakistani politics. The only reason he has held on so far is because he has taken advantage of the squabbling Zardari-Sharif duo. While the Pakistani nation has watched in horror the collapse of governance, its also been very clear that the Taliban, al-Qaida, Lashar-e-Toiba and other versions of the radical Islamist have been on a roll, both in Afghanistan and in India. And ISI, the way India knows it, has gone back to its bad old ways.

In India, the terror blasts in Jaipur, Bangalore and Ahmedabad had a local component that gives the ISI plausible deniability. But LOC firing and infiltrations through summer was proof that the old times were back. All of this culminated in the Kabul embassy blast, India's own 7/7. The ISI had walked out of the closet, bombers blazing, literally.

And then J&K fell into Pakistan's lap. In their wildest dreams, neither the ISI nor the Islamists could have imagined India would destabilise J&K themselves. According to despairing security analysts, there are clear signs of the LET, JEM and others walking back to claim their places again in the fertile fields in the valley. Orchestrated by the ISI.

The point is, if Musharraf had been in control would the ISI or the jihadi groups be any more restrained? Probably not. Despite all his peace moves on J&K, Pakistan army under Musharraf would have fished in the troubled waters in J&K with as much alacrity as Kayani's army is doing today. Not even the US would have been able to prevail because Pakistan could rightly say they did not create the problem. A taste of what a Musharraf in control could have done was in his speech on Thursday in Islamabad. "I condemn this act of human rights violation. There is no doubt that every Pakistani is with their brothers and sisters in Kashmir on this occasion. I have no doubt that Kashmir beats in the heart of every Pakistani and that Kashmir runs through Pakistan's veins. Therefore, every Pakistani is with the people of Kashmir."

These are words India has not heard from Musharraf for ages. So its not difficult to imagine that even if Musharraf had been around the Pakistani response to Indian stupidity would have been the same as it is today.

Where then is the vacuum that Musharraf's exit would create? Former envoy to Pakistan, G. Parthasarathy believes its in three critical areas of Pakistani policy - Taliban and Afghanistan, terrorism and nuclear weapons. "The removal of Musharraf would result in the military playing a more autonomous role on issues of relations with India, including policies on J&K, support for Taliban and control over nuclear weapons."

However, Musharraf played the double game on the Taliban brilliantly. The Taliban did not become the force it has overnight. Its a Musharraf creation with Kayani as ISI chief. On nuclear proliferation, A.Q. Khan's wife Hendrina Khan revealed this week in an interview that it was Musharraf who personally authorised the North Korea nuclear deal.

Where Musharraf's ouster will have a long term effect is inside Pakistan. The common hatred for Musharraf is a bond between the unlikely bedfellows, Zardari and Nawaz Sharif. In many ways, his exit will sort of slake Sharif's "thirst" for revenge, but then what? And can Zardari keep a lid on the internal divisions within the PPP, and retain his control over the party? As Dan Markey, a South Asia expert with Council for Foreign Relations, Washington observes, "The real problem is that the post-Musharraf power configuration is still unsettled, and his removal does little to resolve concerns about stability or capacity of the Islamabad government."

If Pakistan's internal stability teeters further, and if India's handling of J&K becomes an even bigger disaster than it already is, could this give Pakistan's army chief Ashfaq Kayani the opening he might want, sooner rather than later? Could he use the national security and Kashmir argument to bring the Pakistan army back in the saddle? Of course he could. And Pakistan could applaud and India would rue the day the ISI chief became head of government in Pakistan.

Source : Times Of India