Will Cong take LS poll call before assembly results?

NEW DELHI: Amid indications that the Centre was mulling Lok Sabha polls in February, the moot question is whether Congress would announce its
intentions before the assembly results on December 8 if it indeed decides in favour of advancing the grand battle.

For UPA to hit the hustings in February, it is learnt that the Centre would have to announce it in the first half of December. While Parliament is to meet again, December 8 is when the results of polls in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi and Mizoram would be declared.

It is being speculated if Congress, deciding on early polls, would wait for its fate in the bulk of BJP-held states to make public its intentions. The Centre, which involves the Congress leadership as well as allies, is veering around the view that February could be a better time to visit the voters.

The ruling combine is averse to facing the budget session and would prefer a vote-on-account early. Also, the economic downturn has led to fears that it could turn worse in coming months and the uncertainty is too strong to gamble on. While it is only the markets and the slowdown which are visible at the moment, the worst fears revolve around possible job cuts and lay-offs, developments which can impact the voter mood.

Besides, there are a host of imponderables like terrorism and inflation on account of which Centre would not want to lose a relatively better moment for the elections. February is seen as the time when the economic crisis would not be much worse than it is now while the new fiscal could be different.

A halt in terror incidents, as is being seen for a month now, would dampen BJP's bid to make it a big-ticket issue while a stabilizing priceline is adding to Centre's confidence. But the timing of announcement of early polls gains importance, with its coming either side of December 8 set to be interpreted differently. If Congress waits for assembly results and then pitches for an early LS test, after a failure to wrest the BJP-ruled states, it is set to be seen as a sign of panic.

A decision before the assembly results would, however, demonstrably delink the Lok Sabha from the outcome of states. If Congress manages to upset the BJP in a few crucial states after having anyway called for Lok Sabha elections early, it would be seen as approaching the polls as a victor.

Insiders reveal while assembly results would impact the mood of the party — and the Congress has a lot riding on these polls as it is expected to reverse the string of defeats with anti-incumbency against BJP here — the decision on Lok Sabha would still be an independent one because of a different set of reasonings. It is about crisis, and aversion to budget session in the uncertainty of alliance politics.

For the planners, February is suitable because while it does advance the polls by a couple of months, it would also pre-empt the concern over availability of schools and teachers — two crucial tools in the conduct of the mega exercise.


Source : Times Of India